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Amorebieta 1–2 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Mar 6, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amorebieta win44%2.35
Draw31%3.10
Málaga CF win25%4.37

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF −0.554%1.78
Amorebieta −0.546%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.48
Over35%2.80

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Álvaro Vadillo · Málaga CF
31'⚽ (pen)Brandon · Málaga CF
45'🟨Gorka Guruzeta · Amorebieta
45'🟨Jozabed Sánchez · Málaga CF
52'⚽Juande Rivas · Málaga CF
54'🟨Aleix Febas · Málaga CF
69'🟨Mikel San José · Amorebieta
73'🟨Oier Luengo · Amorebieta
89'⚽Iñigo Orozco · Amorebieta
90'🟨Iñigo Orozco · Amorebieta
90'🟨Paulino De la Fuente

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
17Shots5
1On target3
2Corners1
16Fouls11
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmorebietaMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.200.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.620.57
cards avg (last 5)2.002.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueInstalaciones de Lezama Campo 2
· Málaga CF
coach days5.0064.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.200.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.421.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.21
dominance (last 5)0.550.45
elo1438.851397.93
elo momentum (last 5)-7.02-27.84
eye test v1-0.97-0.59
eye trend v10.110.41
first sub minute (last 10)54.1060.50
form points (last 5)5.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.320.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.60—
league points27.0037.00
league rank21.0016.00
matches since blank13.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.009.00
matches since win4.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.2079.80
possession avg (last 5)41.2050.60
rest days7.005.89
scorer concentration0.290.19
season ppg0.841.12
shot diff avg (last 5)2.60-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.208.00
skill v1-1.410.33
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.403.00
squad age27.1129.12
state index-0.59-1.20
sterile dominance v1-1.140.68
threat rate (last 10)0.300.20
threat rate (last 3)0.320.23
threat rate (last 5)0.280.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80