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Las Palmas 2–2 Lugo

← Segunda División 2021 · Sat, Feb 26, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Quintero

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win61%1.58
Draw25%3.80
Lugo win13%7.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo −152%1.88
Las Palmas −148%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.77
Over46%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Sebas Moyano · Lugo
24'🟨Álvaro Lemos · Las Palmas
27'⚽Rafa Mújica · Las Palmas
39'🟨Diego Alende · Lugo
45'⚽ (og)Diego Alende · Las Palmas
67'🟨Fernando Seoane · Lugo
79'🟨Omenuke Mfulu · Las Palmas
83'🟨Carlos Pita · Lugo
89'⚽Chris Ramos · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
12Shots7
4On target3
7Corners3
14Fouls24
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLas PalmasLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.30
box share (last 5)0.570.62
cards avg (last 5)2.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Gran Canaria
coach days56.00331.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.08
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-6.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.409.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.603.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.422.82
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.04
dominance (last 5)0.580.39
elo1494.351483.44
elo momentum (last 5)-17.84-1.25
eye test v10.89-0.52
eye trend v10.24-0.36
first sub minute (last 10)57.0054.00
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.50
keeper form v10.740.84
league points46.0040.00
league rank7.0013.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0070.00
possession avg (last 5)64.4040.40
rest days7.216.11
scorer concentration0.170.21
season ppg1.481.25
shot diff avg (last 5)3.80-6.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.2011.00
skill v11.51-1.29
sot against avg (last 5)4.805.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.203.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.003.20
squad age24.53—
state index-0.32-0.35
sterile dominance v11.11-1.09
threat rate (last 10)0.240.31
threat rate (last 3)0.270.25
threat rate (last 5)0.230.28
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.80