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Amorebieta 1–3 Leganes

← Segunda División 2021 · Mon, Feb 21, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Raúl González

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amorebieta win37%2.66
Draw34%2.90
Leganes win30%3.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amorebieta +055%1.75
Leganes +045%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under67%1.45
Over33%2.88

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Peru Nolaskoain Esnal · Amorebieta
44'🟨Yacine Qasmi · Leganes
45'⚽José Manuel Arnáiz · Leganes
49'🟨Sergi Palencia · Leganes
81'⚽Recio · Leganes
84'🟨Gorka Guruzeta · Amorebieta
88'⚽Koldo Obieta Alberdi · Amorebieta
90'⚽Yoel Bárcenas · Leganes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots7
3On target4
5Corners4
15Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmorebietaLeganes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.160.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.00
box share (last 5)0.570.57
cards avg (last 5)2.203.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueInstalaciones de Lezama Campo 2
coach days1726.00416.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.80-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.602.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.11
dominance (last 5)0.470.48
elo1461.251522.65
elo momentum (last 5)0.49-7.02
eye test v1-1.00-0.55
eye trend v1-0.18-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)55.8058.30
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.420.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
keeper form v10.670.74
league points27.0034.00
league rank21.0018.00
matches since blank11.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.4074.40
possession avg (last 5)41.8051.60
rest days8.1110.00
scorer concentration0.280.21
season ppg0.901.13
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.0010.80
skill v1-1.54-0.09
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.40
squad age27.2328.90
state index-0.20-0.16
sterile dominance v1-0.900.30
threat rate (last 10)0.300.24
threat rate (last 3)0.280.20
threat rate (last 5)0.250.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80