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Las Palmas 0–2 Burgos

← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Feb 13, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win51%3.25
Draw26%4.02
Burgos win23%7.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas −150%1.94
Burgos −150%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.88
Over48%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Grego Sierra · Burgos
45'🟨Raúl Navas · Las Palmas
48'⚽Aitor Córdoba · Burgos
56'🟨Unai Elgezabal · Burgos
63'🟨Enzo Loiodice · Las Palmas
71'⚽Andy Rodríguez · Burgos

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots8
4On target5
8Corners3
11Fouls19
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLas PalmasBurgos
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.550.49
cards avg (last 5)2.000.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Gran Canaria
coach days43.00622.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.13
corner diff avg (last 5)1.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.172.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.07
dominance (last 5)0.570.45
elo1521.991503.17
elo momentum (last 5)1.287.20
eye test v10.570.02
eye trend v10.410.35
first sub minute (last 10)54.2065.90
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.45
keeper form v10.650.78
league points46.0038.00
league rank6.0013.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0069.00
possession avg (last 5)61.2049.20
rest days7.119.00
scorer concentration0.180.32
season ppg1.591.36
shot diff avg (last 5)3.00-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.2011.80
skill v11.23-0.73
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.60
sot for avg (last 3)7.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.80
squad age27.5027.99
state index0.130.13
sterile dominance v10.98-0.31
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.27
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20