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Ibiza 2–1 Cartagena

← Segunda División 2021 · Sat, Feb 12, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Quintero

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ibiza win43%2.23
Draw28%3.50
Cartagena win28%3.54

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ibiza −0.2551%1.91
Cartagena −0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.81
Over47%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽ (pen)Miguel Ángel Guerrero · Ibiza
45'⚽Dauda Mohammed · Cartagena
49'🟨Miguel Ángel Guerrero · Ibiza
73'🟨Julio Buffarini · Cartagena
76'⚽ (pen)Cristian Herrera · Ibiza
84'🟨Sergio Tejera · Cartagena
90'🟨Pablo Vázquez · Cartagena
90'🟨Álex Gallar · Cartagena

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots6
3On target3
7Corners4
25Fouls15
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricIbizaCartagena
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.680.69
cards avg (last 5)3.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Can Misses – Power Electronic
coach days73.00407.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.220.08
corner diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.741.89
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.07
dominance (last 5)0.450.42
elo1499.571502.77
elo momentum (last 5)31.23-6.02
eye test v10.540.13
eye trend v10.020.16
first sub minute (last 10)55.4062.10
form points (last 5)10.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)3.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)2.221.16
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.25
keeper form v10.710.76
league points38.0048.00
league rank11.005.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4082.60
possession avg (last 5)59.4056.20
rest days7.896.00
scorer concentration0.260.38
season ppg1.361.66
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.40-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.2011.40
skill v10.600.95
sot against avg (last 5)5.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.004.40
squad age28.5729.80
state index0.21-0.12
sterile dominance v10.920.92
threat rate (last 10)0.210.22
threat rate (last 3)0.170.24
threat rate (last 5)0.190.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.002.00