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Fuenlabrada 0–0 Valladolid

← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Feb 6, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Rubén Ávalos

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win47%2.07
Draw29%3.60
Fuenlabrada win24%4.08

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fuenlabrada +0.553%1.85
Valladolid +0.547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.89
Over48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Alberto Rodríguez · Fuenlabrada
24'🟨Iban Salvador · Fuenlabrada
44'🟨Javi Sánchez · Valladolid
60'🟨Mikel Iribas · Fuenlabrada
78'🟨Roque Mesa · Valladolid
81'🟨Pol Valentín · Fuenlabrada
90'🟨Mohamed Bouldini · Fuenlabrada
90'🟨Alejandro Sotillos · Fuenlabrada
90'🟨Jawad El Yamiq · Valladolid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots16
2On target4
9Corners6
21Fouls12
6Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFuenlabradaValladolid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.580.61
cards avg (last 5)3.800.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Fernando Torres
coach days67.00250.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.05
corner diff avg (last 5)0.406.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.201.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.608.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.891.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.00
dominance (last 5)0.500.67
elo1440.201626.46
elo momentum (last 5)-17.4219.68
eye test v1-0.841.01
eye trend v10.54-0.02
first sub minute (last 10)52.2057.60
form points (last 5)4.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.45
keeper form v10.650.74
league points25.0056.00
league rank21.002.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.4083.20
possession avg (last 5)38.6056.20
rest days6.928.71
scorer concentration0.290.31
season ppg0.932.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.6010.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.6019.20
skill v1-1.671.01
sot against avg (last 5)6.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.206.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.006.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.606.00
squad age26.8226.38
state index-0.480.81
sterile dominance v1-1.47-0.16
threat rate (last 10)0.240.31
threat rate (last 3)0.310.36
threat rate (last 5)0.300.34
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40