← Segunda División 2021 · Wed, Jan 19, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 35% | 2.84 |
| Lugo win | 33% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Lugo +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.56 |
| Over | 38% | 2.56 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Manu Barreiro · Lugo |
| 23' | ⚽ | Chris Ramos · Lugo |
| 40' | 🟨 | Juanjo Nieto · Almeria |
| 41' | 🟨 | Juan Antonio Ros · Lugo |
| 86' | 🟨 | Srđan Babić · Almeria |
| 88' | ⚽ (og) | Carlos Pita · Almeria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricard Sánchez · Lugo |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carrillo · Lugo |
| 90' | 🟥 | Juanpe · Lugo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Curro · Almeria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Largie Ramazani · Almeria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 22 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 0 | Corners | 12 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Anxo Carro |
| coach days | 293.00 | 293.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1466.68 | 1652.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.34 | -18.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.90 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.82 |
| league points | 30.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 10.21 | 9.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.20 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.95 | 24.47 |
| state index | 0.09 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.71 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |