← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Dec 19, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Draw | 35% | 2.88 |
| Oviedo win | 34% | 2.97 |
| Fuenlabrada win | 31% | 3.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Oviedo +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Fuenlabrada +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 73% | 1.34 |
| Over | 27% | 3.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 0 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 31 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Fernando Torres |