← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Dec 12, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Las Palmas win | 41% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 |
| Amorebieta win | 28% | 3.72 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Amorebieta +0.25 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Las Palmas +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over | 39% | 2.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2 |