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Eibar 2–2 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2021 · Sat, Dec 11, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Rubén Ávalos

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar win55%1.83
Draw27%3.64
Málaga CF win18%5.91

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar −0.7551%1.92
Málaga CF −0.7549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.72
Over44%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Sekou Gassama · Málaga CF
23'🟨David Lombán · Málaga CF
25'⚽ (pen)Stoichkov · Eibar
27'⚽José Corpas · Eibar
80'🟨José Corpas · Eibar
82'⚽Brandon · Málaga CF
89'🟨Sergio Álvarez · Eibar

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
12Shots14
5On target4
7Corners4
15Fouls9
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEibarMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.680.60
cards avg (last 5)2.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Ipurúa
coach days193.00193.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.800.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.952.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.15
dominance (last 5)0.600.44
elo1609.961464.49
elo momentum (last 5)-4.07-21.84
eye test v10.22-0.37
eye trend v10.32-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)50.1057.10
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.50
keeper form v10.720.63
league points41.0029.00
league rank2.0013.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.003.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6079.20
possession avg (last 5)56.6055.40
rest days5.196.19
scorer concentration0.380.20
season ppg1.951.38
shot diff avg (last 5)6.40-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.8010.20
skill v10.490.56
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.40
squad age26.64—
state index0.54-0.67
sterile dominance v10.010.82
threat rate (last 10)0.270.22
threat rate (last 3)0.350.18
threat rate (last 5)0.290.19
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.40