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Girona 3–0 Leganes

← Segunda División 2021 · Mon, Dec 6, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win41%2.41
Draw32%3.00
Leganes win27%3.64

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leganes −0.2551%1.89
Girona −0.2549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.49
Over35%2.76

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Bruno González · Leganes
28'🟨Borja Garcés · Leganes
33'⚽ (og)José Manuel Arnáiz · Girona
45'⚽Christian Stuani · Girona
59'🟨Luis Perea · Leganes
60'🟨Sergio González · Leganes
76'⚽Christian Stuani · Girona
78'🟨Javier Hernández · Leganes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots20
5On target3
2Corners6
11Fouls15
0Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGironaLeganes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.600.49
cards avg (last 5)1.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi Municipal de Montilivi
coach days158.00339.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.21
corner diff avg (last 5)0.602.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.202.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.805.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.882.66
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.12
dominance (last 5)0.480.58
elo1549.841541.17
elo momentum (last 5)11.7648.06
eye test v10.290.26
eye trend v1-0.120.07
first sub minute (last 10)56.4052.70
form points (last 5)9.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.35
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.630.71
league points27.0021.00
league rank14.0018.00
matches since blank10.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.6076.40
possession avg (last 5)52.2049.60
rest days7.008.29
scorer concentration0.370.22
season ppg1.351.05
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.803.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.0012.00
skill v10.78-0.05
sot against avg (last 5)3.202.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.80
squad age25.9229.07
state index0.110.71
sterile dominance v10.500.01
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.210.28
threat rate (last 5)0.230.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40