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Amorebieta 1–1 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Nov 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver De La Fuente

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win38%2.50
Draw32%3.03
Amorebieta win30%3.39

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amorebieta +0.2553%1.83
Zaragoza +0.2547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.56
Over38%2.53

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Álvaro Giménez · Zaragoza
24'⚽ (og)Jair Amador · Amorebieta
29'🟨Aitor Aldalur · Amorebieta
54'🟨Óscar Gil · Amorebieta
68'🟥Iñigo Orozco · Amorebieta
71'🟨Jair Amador · Zaragoza
87'🟨Iker Bilbao · Amorebieta
89'🟨Gorka Larrucea · Amorebieta
90'🟨Gorka Guruzeta · Amorebieta
90'🟨James Igbekeme · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
8Shots6
0On target2
5Corners8
14Fouls14
5Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmorebietaZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.38
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.10
box share (last 5)0.600.59
cards avg (last 5)2.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueInstalaciones de Lezama Campo 2
coach days1641.00484.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.05
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.240.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.40-3.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.205.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.802.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.452.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.07
dominance (last 5)0.400.41
elo1440.101495.02
elo momentum (last 5)-4.4735.57
eye test v1-1.46-0.21
eye trend v1-0.220.61
first sub minute (last 10)47.9054.30
form points (last 5)5.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.20
league points14.0026.00
league rank23.0011.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.002.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)58.8078.60
possession avg (last 5)42.8049.40
rest days8.005.79
scorer concentration0.170.25
season ppg0.741.37
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.40-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.0010.00
skill v1-2.090.14
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.203.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.003.80
squad age27.0127.34
state index-0.620.22
sterile dominance v1-0.750.35
threat rate (last 10)0.250.20
threat rate (last 3)0.190.24
threat rate (last 5)0.200.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.80