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Amorebieta 1–3 Lugo

← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Nov 14, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Milla

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amorebieta win44%2.21
Draw32%3.07
Lugo win24%4.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amorebieta −0.2553%1.85
Lugo −0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.56
Over38%2.55

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Josep Señé · Lugo
7'🟨Fernando Seoane · Lugo
29'⚽Iker Bilbao · Amorebieta
43'⚽José Ángel Carrillo · Lugo
45'🟨Oier Luengo · Amorebieta
45'🟨José Ángel Carrillo · Lugo
65'🟨Jaume Cuellar Mendoza · Lugo
68'🟨Chris Ramos · Lugo
71'🟨Gorka Larrucea · Amorebieta
81'🟨Francisco Vieites · Lugo
82'🟨Álvaro Peña · Amorebieta
90'⚽Sebas Moyano · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
13Shots6
2On target3
3Corners4
16Fouls14
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmorebietaLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.28
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.05
box share (last 5)0.610.62
cards avg (last 5)1.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueInstalaciones de Lezama Campo 2
coach days1627.00227.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.10
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.240.20
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.806.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.206.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.123.28
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.08
dominance (last 5)0.410.33
elo1469.471427.05
elo momentum (last 5)2.57-24.51
eye test v1-1.32-0.98
eye trend v1-0.340.17
first sub minute (last 10)50.5047.60
form points (last 5)5.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.20
keeper form v1—0.70
league points14.0018.00
league rank23.0016.00
matches since blank5.004.00
matches since clean sheet5.005.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)55.2068.40
possession avg (last 5)41.0042.20
rest days7.007.92
scorer concentration0.180.27
season ppg0.821.06
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60-8.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.609.40
skill v1-2.54-1.26
sot against avg (last 5)3.005.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.402.60
squad age29.1826.42
state index-0.28-1.01
sterile dominance v1-1.15-0.61
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.31
threat rate (last 5)0.220.23
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.40