← Segunda División 2021 · Wed, Nov 3, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Luis Milla
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Las Palmas win | 54% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.41 |
| Fuenlabrada win | 17% | 6.14 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fuenlabrada −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Las Palmas −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.52 |
| Over | 37% | 2.68 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio de Gran Canaria |