← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Oct 31, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fuenlabrada win | 35% | 2.87 |
| Girona win | 33% | 3.01 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fuenlabrada +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Girona +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 65% | 1.47 |
| Over | 35% | 2.81 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 27 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 3 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Fernando Torres |