⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Lugo 2–0 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2021 · Wed, Oct 20, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Rubén Ávalos

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win36%2.74
Lugo win32%2.96
Draw32%3.08

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas +052%1.88
Lugo +048%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.61
Over39%2.43

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽ (og)Erick Ferigra · Lugo
7'🟨Ricard Sánchez · Lugo
27'🟨Sergi Cardona · Las Palmas
33'⚽Xavi Torres · Lugo
43'🟨Chris Ramos · Lugo
60'🟨Joselu · Lugo
64'🟨Diego Alende · Lugo
68'🟨Edu Campabadal · Lugo
69'🟨Maikel Mesa · Las Palmas
72'🟨Oscar Clemente · Las Palmas
77'🟨Eric Curbelo · Las Palmas
80'🟨Josep Señé · Lugo
88'🟨Álvaro Lemos · Las Palmas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
3Shots15
1On target3
2Corners0
29Fouls14
6Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.52
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.680.48
cards avg (last 5)2.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Anxo Carro
coach days202.00964.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.600.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.803.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.072.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.06
dominance (last 5)0.460.50
elo1435.781513.87
elo momentum (last 5)10.6336.97
eye test v1-0.210.77
eye trend v10.150.29
first sub minute (last 10)56.8047.90
form points (last 5)6.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.18
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.62—
league points13.0017.00
league rank15.009.00
matches since blank7.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.0083.20
possession avg (last 5)38.6055.60
rest days3.114.11
scorer concentration0.300.38
season ppg1.181.70
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.8012.00
skill v1-1.610.96
sot against avg (last 5)2.602.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.80
squad age—23.29
state index-0.140.40
sterile dominance v1-1.210.73
threat rate (last 10)0.270.22
threat rate (last 3)0.240.20
threat rate (last 5)0.270.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20