← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Oct 17, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Rafael Sánchez
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos win | 38% | 2.59 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.90 |
| Lugo win | 29% | 3.44 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lugo −0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Burgos −0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 1.45 |
| Over | 34% | 2.86 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Iriome Gonzalez · Lugo |
| 8' | ⚽ | Grego Sierra · Burgos |
| 32' | 🟨 | Andy Rodríguez · Burgos |
| 39' | ⚽ | José Ángel Carrillo · Lugo |
| 43' | 🟨 | Xavi Torres · Lugo |
| 44' | 🟨 | Edu Campabadal · Lugo |
| 50' | 🟨 | Diego Alende · Lugo |
| 57' | 🟨 | Miguel Muñoz Mora · Burgos |
| 79' | 🟨 | Álvaro Rodriguez · Burgos |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 23 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burgos | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de El Plantío |
| coach days | 503.00 | 199.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1449.91 | 1433.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.35 | 21.40 |
| eye test v1 | -1.36 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.89 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.60 |
| league points | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 36.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -1.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.66 | 27.25 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -1.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |