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Tenerife 2–1 Amorebieta

← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Oct 10, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Víctor García

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win60%1.68
Draw27%3.60
Amorebieta win14%7.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife −0.7552%1.88
Amorebieta −0.7548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.67
Over43%2.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Samuel Shashoua · Tenerife
27'🟨Lander Olaetxea · Amorebieta
29'⚽Eladio Zorrilla Jiménez · Tenerife
33'🟨Jeremy Mellot · Tenerife
38'🟨Aitor Sanz · Tenerife
38'🟨Jeremy Mellot · Tenerife
38'🟥Jeremy Mellot · Tenerife
64'🟨Jon Irazábal Iraurgui · Amorebieta
64'⚽ (pen)Samuel Shashoua · Tenerife
70'⚽Asier Etxabaru · Amorebieta
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots12
3On target4
5Corners9
11Fouls10
5Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeAmorebieta
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.15—
box share (last 5)0.560.54
cards avg (last 5)3.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz
Sergio González
· Tenerife
coach days343.001592.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.40—
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.11
dominance (last 5)0.510.50
elo1529.651483.22
elo momentum (last 5)20.65-8.09
eye test v10.37-0.17
eye trend v1-0.04-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)50.0058.25
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.92—
h2 goals (last 10)0.70—
ht lead rate (last 20)0.30—
keeper form v10.780.66
league points15.008.00
league rank6.0023.00
matches since blank5.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.009.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2067.00
possession avg (last 5)41.8039.40
rest days8.098.09
scorer concentration0.290.43
season ppg1.670.89
shot diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.2011.80
skill v1-0.67-1.57
sot against avg (last 5)5.002.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.00
squad age29.3228.34
state index0.22-0.44
sterile dominance v1-1.10-1.46
threat rate (last 10)0.290.32
threat rate (last 3)0.280.27
threat rate (last 5)0.320.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.20—