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Fuenlabrada 2–1 Cartagena

← Segunda División 2021 · Mon, Sep 27, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Quintero

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fuenlabrada win48%2.05
Draw31%3.20
Cartagena win21%4.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cartagena −0.552%1.86
Fuenlabrada −0.548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.62
Over41%2.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Cristóbal Márquez · Fuenlabrada
34'🟨Pedro Alcala · Cartagena
34'⚽ (pen)Pedro León · Fuenlabrada
38'🟨Iban Salvador · Fuenlabrada
39'🟨Mikel Iribas · Fuenlabrada
39'🟨Julián Delmás · Cartagena
51'🟨Franco Soldano · Fuenlabrada
63'🟨Pablo Clavería · Cartagena
64'🟨Álex Gallar · Cartagena
65'🟨Rubén Castro · Cartagena
66'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots9
6On target3
3Corners0
24Fouls12
5Yellow cards9
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFuenlabradaCartagena
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.500.51
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Fernando Torres
Pedro León
· Fuenlabrada
75'🟨Richard Boateng · Cartagena
77'🟨Pedro León · Fuenlabrada
83'⚽Alfredo Ortuño · Cartagena
90'🟨Marc Martínez · Cartagena
90'🟨Pablo De Blasis · Cartagena
90'🟨Gastón Silva · Cartagena
coach days238.00269.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.000.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.603.00
corners for avg (last 5)2.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.972.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.07
dominance (last 5)0.520.42
elo1495.721463.30
elo momentum (last 5)0.8628.43
eye test v1-0.47-0.60
eye trend v10.430.00
first sub minute (last 10)49.1049.50
form points (last 5)5.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.840.73
league points8.0012.00
league rank18.008.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.2079.20
possession avg (last 5)39.0050.60
rest days8.299.00
scorer concentration0.40—
season ppg1.141.71
shot diff avg (last 5)0.40-4.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.409.20
skill v1-1.850.27
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.00
squad age27.0329.86
state index-0.210.07
sterile dominance v1-1.510.58
threat rate (last 10)0.280.19
threat rate (last 3)0.340.20
threat rate (last 5)0.300.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20