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Tenerife 1–2 Mirandes

← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Sep 19, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Luis Milla

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win56%1.95
Draw28%3.77
Mirandes win16%6.88

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife −0.7554%1.78
Mirandes −0.7546%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.63
Over41%2.38

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Jeremy Mellot · Tenerife
19'🟨Enric Gallego · Tenerife
23'🟨Alejandro Marqués · Mirandes
43'🟨Sergio Carreira · Mirandes
44'⚽ (pen)Míchel Herrero · Tenerife
82'🟨Carlos Ruiz · Tenerife
82'⚽Simón Moreno · Mirandes
84'🟨Pablo Larrea · Tenerife
86'🟨Alejandro López · Mirandes
90'🟨Raúl Lizoain · Mirandes
90'⚽Simón Moreno

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots11
5On target6
6Corners2
17Fouls16
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeMirandes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.59
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.52
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.480.61
cards avg (last 5)2.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz
· Mirandes
coach days322.00110.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.20
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.232.01
defensive leak (last 5)0.020.09
dominance (last 5)0.520.34
elo1539.831455.34
elo momentum (last 5)29.04-6.29
eye test v10.180.33
eye trend v1-0.080.49
first sub minute (last 10)58.0057.00
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.870.74
league points12.007.00
league rank5.0017.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2080.80
possession avg (last 5)45.4053.80
rest days7.097.89
scorer concentration0.200.38
season ppg2.001.17
shot diff avg (last 5)1.00-7.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.609.20
skill v1-0.520.63
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.80
squad age28.8523.25
state index0.49-0.49
sterile dominance v1-0.770.93
threat rate (last 10)0.280.19
threat rate (last 3)0.310.18
threat rate (last 5)0.300.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.40