← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Aug 29, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 47% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 |
| Lugo win | 22% | 4.70 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lugo +0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Valladolid +0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.54 |
| Over | 37% | 2.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Shon Weissman · Valladolid |
| 38' | 🟨 | Joaquín Fernández · Valladolid |
| 38' | 🟥 | Shon Weissman · Valladolid |
| 42' | 🟨 | Javi Sánchez · Valladolid |
| 51' | 🟨 | Juan Antonio Ros · Lugo |
| 53' | ⚽ | Toni Villa · Valladolid |
| 70' | 🟨 | Saidy Janko · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fede San Emeterio · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estadio Anxo Carro |
| coach days | 150.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1419.04 | 1576.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.77 | -12.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.00 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 8.10 | 8.98 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.27 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.09 | 26.69 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.92 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |