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Zaragoza 0–0 Ibiza

← Segunda DivisiΓ³n 2021 Β· Fri, Aug 13, 08:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Iosu Galech

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win46%2.30
Draw31%3.10
Ibiza win23%5.25

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza βˆ’0.2551%1.93
Ibiza βˆ’0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under67%1.43
Over33%2.97

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Rubén · Ibiza
19'🟨Fran GÑmez · Zaragoza
71'🟨David Goldar · Ibiza
86'🟨Radosav PetroviΔ‡ Β· Zaragoza

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots10
0On target2
1Corners6
11Fouls16
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaIbiza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.30β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.28β€”
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.36β€”
blown lead rate (last 20)0.15β€”
box share (last 5)0.57β€”
cards avg (last 5)2.20β€”
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueEstadio de la Romareda
coach days377.00377.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00β€”
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.12β€”
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60β€”
corners against avg (last 5)4.00β€”
corners for avg (last 5)4.60β€”
corners volatility (last 10)2.46β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.11β€”
dominance (last 5)0.44β€”
elo1462.971500.00
elo momentum (last 5)12.54β€”
eye test v1-0.32β€”
eye trend v1-0.05β€”
first sub minute (last 10)56.90β€”
form points (last 5)7.00β€”
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20β€”
goals against avg (last 5)1.40β€”
goals for avg (last 5)1.20β€”
goals volatility (last 10)1.15β€”
h2 goals (last 10)0.70β€”
ht lead rate (last 20)0.45β€”
keeper form v10.55β€”
matches since blank0.00β€”
matches since clean sheet2.00β€”
matches since win2.00β€”
pass acc avg (last 5)80.60β€”
possession avg (last 5)47.40β€”
rest days30.00β€”
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.20β€”
shots for avg (last 5)9.80β€”
skill v10.20β€”
sot against avg (last 5)5.20β€”
sot for avg (last 10)3.20β€”
sot for avg (last 3)2.67β€”
sot for avg (last 5)3.40β€”
squad age25.84β€”
state index-0.13-0.01
sterile dominance v10.27β€”
threat rate (last 10)0.22β€”
threat rate (last 3)0.19β€”
threat rate (last 5)0.21β€”
venue ppg (last 5)1.20β€”