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Pordenone 3–3 Crotone

← Serie B 2021 · Sat, Apr 30, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Miele

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Crotone win42%2.26
Pordenone win30%3.23
Draw28%3.62

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pordenone +0.2550%1.94
Crotone +0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.77
Under46%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Roberto Zammarini · Pordenone
27'🟨Luca Calapai · Crotone
45'⚽Ionuț Nedelcearu · Crotone
58'⚽Leonardo Candellone · Pordenone
59'⚽Manuel Marras · Crotone
64'⚽Mirko Marić · Crotone
77'🟨Alessandro Lovisa · Pordenone
85'⚽Karlo Butić · Pordenone
90'⚽Roberto Zammarini · Pordenone

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
19Shots17
8On target7
3Corners5
10Fouls10
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPordenoneCrotone
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.640.58
cards avg (last 5)2.002.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Guido Teghil
coach days241.00211.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.631.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.11
dominance (last 5)0.410.49
elo1274.801391.83
elo momentum (last 5)-9.8314.62
eye test v10.09-0.33
eye trend v10.01-0.02
first sub minute (last 10)51.1061.30
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.660.72
league points17.0026.00
league rank21.0020.00
matches since blank2.006.00
matches since clean sheet3.007.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4072.80
possession avg (last 5)47.6051.00
rest days4.964.96
scorer concentration0.300.21
season ppg0.450.68
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.20-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.0012.40
skill v1-0.34-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.80
squad age25.9326.33
state index-1.10-0.28
sterile dominance v1-0.18-0.09
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.210.27
threat rate (last 5)0.240.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.60