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Cosenza 3–1 Pordenone

← Serie B 2021 · Mon, Apr 25, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Massimi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza win57%1.74
Draw26%3.70
Pordenone win17%7.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pordenone −0.7551%1.93
Cosenza −0.7549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.71
Over44%2.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽Alessandro Lovisa · Pordenone
33'🟨Alessio Sabbione · Pordenone
36'⚽ (pen)Joaquín Larrivey · Cosenza
44'⚽Joaquín Larrivey · Cosenza
56'🟨Michele Camporese · Cosenza
76'🟨Kevin Biondi · Pordenone
82'⚽Michele Camporese · Cosenza
90'🟨Marco Carraro · Cosenza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
12Shots16
7On target4
4Corners5
14Fouls12
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCosenzaPordenone
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
box share (last 5)0.800.66
cards avg (last 5)3.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla
coach days83.00236.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.052.66
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.09
dominance (last 5)0.450.37
elo1331.991285.34
elo momentum (last 5)-4.186.37
eye test v1-0.58-0.15
eye trend v10.060.45
first sub minute (last 10)42.6052.20
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.25
keeper form v10.670.58
league points32.0017.00
league rank17.0021.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0068.80
possession avg (last 5)37.6042.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.190.32
season ppg0.860.46
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-6.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.809.40
skill v1-1.39-1.17
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.20
squad age27.2925.26
state index-0.84-1.04
sterile dominance v1-1.01-0.60
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.00