← Serie B 2021 · Mon, Apr 25, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: D. Minelli
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ascoli win | 48% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
| Cittadella win | 23% | 4.43 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cittadella −0.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Ascoli −0.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.66 |
| Over | 42% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Dario Del Fabro · Cittadella |
| 20' | 🟨 | Daniele Donnarumma · Cittadella |
| 24' | 🟨 | Mirko Eramo · Ascoli |
| 33' | 🟨 | Simone Branca · Cittadella |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ignacio Lores Varela · Cittadella |
| 90' | 🟨 | Camillo Tavernelli · Cittadella |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ascoli | Cittadella |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca |
| coach days | 510.00 | 298.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1486.78 | 1475.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.88 | -28.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| league points | 61.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 6.77 | 6.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 29.55 | 26.86 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |