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Ternana 4–4 Frosinone Calcio

← Serie B 2021 · Mon, Apr 18, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Robilotta

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ternana win36%2.78
Frosinone Calcio win35%2.84
Draw30%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ternana +051%1.93
Frosinone Calcio +049%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.90
Over49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Marcus Rohdén · Frosinone Calcio
21'⚽Mattia Proietti · Ternana
27'⚽ (og)Stefano Minelli · Ternana
31'🟨Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio
37'⚽ (og)Luka Bogdan · Frosinone Calcio
44'🟨Marcus Rohdén · Frosinone Calcio
47'⚽Antonio Palumbo · Ternana
64'⚽Federico Gatti · Frosinone Calcio
67'🟨Daniel Boloca · Frosinone Calcio
72'🟨Luka Bogdan · Ternana
77'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
12Shots17
3On target4
6Corners8
10Fouls13
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTernanaFrosinone Calcio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.690.55
cards avg (last 5)3.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Libero Liberati
Stefano Pettinari
· Ternana
90'🟨Ilias Koutsoupias · Ternana
90'🟨Luca Garritano · Frosinone Calcio
90'⚽ (pen)Andrija Novakovich · Frosinone Calcio
coach days1172.00413.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.132.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.10
dominance (last 5)0.490.47
elo1425.741512.09
elo momentum (last 5)27.89-23.51
eye test v1-0.38-0.53
eye trend v1-0.13-0.44
first sub minute (last 10)54.0055.00
form points (last 5)10.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.52—
league points50.0060.00
league rank13.007.00
matches since blank12.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.2072.60
possession avg (last 5)47.4050.60
rest days8.109.07
scorer concentration0.230.21
season ppg1.391.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.6011.00
skill v1-1.09-0.31
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.40
squad age27.8627.67
state index0.08-0.42
sterile dominance v1-0.510.01
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.220.20
threat rate (last 5)0.240.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20