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Frosinone Calcio 2–1 Cremonese

← Serie B 2021 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: R. Abisso

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio win38%2.60
Draw31%3.12
Cremonese win31%3.37

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cremonese −0.2553%1.85
Frosinone Calcio −0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.74
Over44%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Cristian Buonaiuto · Cremonese
21'🟨Luca Ravanelli · Cremonese
22'⚽ (pen)Luigi Canotto · Frosinone Calcio
34'🟨Matteo Ricci · Frosinone Calcio
37'⚽Alessio Zerbin · Frosinone Calcio
44'🟨Nicolò Brighenti · Frosinone Calcio
56'🟨Alessio Zerbin · Frosinone Calcio
84'🟨Matteo Cotali · Frosinone Calcio
84'🟨Luca Strizzolo · Cremonese
87'🟨Luca Strizzolo · Cremonese
87'🟥

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
11Shots13
5On target3
1Corners7
21Fouls19
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFrosinone CalcioCremonese
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.180.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.550.61
cards avg (last 5)3.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Benito Stirpe
Luca Strizzolo · Cremonese
3.40
coach days404.00463.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.12
corner diff avg (last 5)2.001.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.423.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.09
dominance (last 5)0.500.49
elo1502.111561.58
elo momentum (last 5)-24.77-2.97
eye test v1-0.22-0.18
eye trend v1-0.300.09
first sub minute (last 10)53.5047.50
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.230.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
keeper form v10.770.74
league points57.0067.00
league rank7.002.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8070.80
possession avg (last 5)53.0046.20
rest days3.893.89
scorer concentration0.210.15
season ppg1.631.91
shot diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.6012.40
skill v10.05-0.76
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.00
squad age26.4025.93
state index-0.100.16
sterile dominance v10.08-0.62
threat rate (last 10)0.270.28
threat rate (last 3)0.230.28
threat rate (last 5)0.250.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.60