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Perugia 1–1 US Lecce

← Serie B 2021 · Sun, Mar 6, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Santoro

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Perugia win35%2.73
US Lecce win34%3.09
Draw31%3.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Perugia +051%1.95
US Lecce +049%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.64
Over40%2.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Marcin Listkowski · US Lecce
21'🟨Christian Kouan · Perugia
27'🟨Marcello Falzerano · Perugia
42'🟨Manuel De Luca · Perugia
44'🟨Christian Kouan · Perugia
44'🟥Christian Kouan · Perugia
45'🟨Pablo Rodríguez · US Lecce
49'🟨Alexis Blin · US Lecce
64'🟨Marco Olivieri · Perugia
64'🟨Arturo Calabresi · US Lecce
67'⚽Marco Olivieri · Perugia
72'🟨Alessandro Tuia · US Lecce
79'🟨Zan Majer · US Lecce
90'🟨Ryder Matos · Perugia
90'⚽ (pen)Massimo Coda · US Lecce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
5Shots20
2On target6
0Corners2
19Fouls26
6Yellow cards6
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPerugiaUS Lecce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.540.66
cards avg (last 5)3.602.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Renato Curi
coach days278.00248.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.13
corner diff avg (last 5)1.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.804.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.893.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.09
dominance (last 5)0.440.58
elo1486.041607.56
elo momentum (last 5)1.256.79
eye test v1-0.370.19
eye trend v1-0.260.08
first sub minute (last 10)57.7060.50
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.45
keeper form v10.800.71
league points44.0055.00
league rank11.003.00
matches since blank1.0011.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.8070.00
possession avg (last 5)47.0051.80
rest days4.883.88
scorer concentration0.230.28
season ppg1.571.96
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.204.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.0013.80
skill v1-0.80-0.47
sot against avg (last 5)5.602.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.905.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.405.00
squad age27.0126.38
state index-0.290.44
sterile dominance v1-0.67-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.290.26
threat rate (last 3)0.290.26
threat rate (last 5)0.280.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.60