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Parma Calcio 1913 1–1 Reggina

← Serie B 2021 · Sat, Mar 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Abbattista

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Parma Calcio 1913 win58%1.90
Draw25%4.23
Reggina win17%7.58

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Parma Calcio 1913 −152%1.86
Reggina −148%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.88
Over48%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Juan Brunetta · Parma Calcio 1913
24'🟨Përparim Hetemaj · Reggina
25'🟨Michael Folorunsho · Reggina
26'🟨Bruno Amione · Reggina
28'🟨Adrián Bernabé · Parma Calcio 1913
30'🟨Jérémy Ménez · Reggina
31'🟨Federico Giraudo · Reggina
62'🟨Lorenzo Crisetig · Reggina
65'⚽ (og)Elias Cobbaut · Reggina
87'🟨Simon Sohm · Parma Calcio 1913

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots9
6On target2
14Corners0
17Fouls20
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricParma Calcio 1913Reggina
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.760.69
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Ennio Tardini
1.60
coach days124.00277.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d6.007.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.18
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-5.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.807.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.201.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.711.94
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.05
dominance (last 5)0.530.30
elo1491.961454.33
elo momentum (last 5)-5.1027.47
eye test v10.37-0.36
eye trend v10.240.51
first sub minute (last 10)49.4057.00
form points (last 5)5.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.511.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.40
keeper form v10.830.70
league points36.0044.00
league rank14.0011.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2073.60
possession avg (last 5)51.8044.20
rest days2.812.81
scorer concentration0.290.23
season ppg1.291.52
shot diff avg (last 5)2.20-10.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.408.60
skill v10.63-0.64
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.60
squad age26.4727.04
state index-0.19-0.26
sterile dominance v10.13-0.14
threat rate (last 10)0.270.22
threat rate (last 3)0.220.20
threat rate (last 5)0.270.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80