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Como 1907 1–1 Brescia

← Serie B 2021 · Sat, Feb 26, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Irrati

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia win40%2.70
Como 1907 win31%3.42
Draw29%3.44

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia +0.2551%1.93
Como 1907 +0.2549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.85
Under47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Alberto Cerri · Como 1907
18'🟨Davide Adorni · Brescia
45'🟨Vittorio Parigini · Como 1907
45'🟨Federico Proia · Brescia
53'🟨Massimiliano Mangraviti · Brescia
54'🟨Tommaso Arrigoni · Como 1907
71'⚽Florian Ayé · Brescia
90'🟨Andrea Papetti · Brescia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots17
3On target3
4Corners9
12Fouls22
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricComo 1907Brescia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.560.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.590.73
cards avg (last 5)2.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
coach days452.00270.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.602.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.806.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.312.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.05
dominance (last 5)0.400.65
elo1419.291565.23
elo momentum (last 5)18.215.29
eye test v1-0.050.45
eye trend v10.090.13
first sub minute (last 10)52.6052.00
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.820.82
league points37.0050.00
league rank11.002.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet8.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0076.80
possession avg (last 5)45.0054.80
rest days2.812.81
scorer concentration0.170.17
season ppg1.421.92
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.807.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.0018.80
skill v1-0.230.29
sot against avg (last 5)6.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.80
state index-0.520.56
sterile dominance v1-0.03-0.52
threat rate (last 10)0.260.31
threat rate (last 3)0.170.36
threat rate (last 5)0.220.35
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.60