⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Frosinone Calcio 3–0 Reggina

← Serie B 2021 · Wed, Feb 23, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Meraviglia

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio win62%1.70
Draw24%4.40
Reggina win15%8.11

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio −155%1.76
Reggina −145%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.88
Under48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Nicola Bellomo · Reggina
23'🟨Francesco Zampano · Frosinone Calcio
44'🟨Matteo Cotali · Frosinone Calcio
48'⚽Gabriel Charpentier · Frosinone Calcio
56'🟨Gabriel Charpentier · Frosinone Calcio
68'⚽Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio
70'🟨Nicolò Bianchi · Reggina
72'🟨Federico Gatti · Frosinone Calcio
87'🟨Jérémy Ménez · Reggina
89'⚽Luigi Canotto · Frosinone Calcio
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
22Shots2
6On target0
5Corners0
24Fouls15
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFrosinone CalcioReggina
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.33—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.19—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.28—
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.65—
cards avg (last 5)1.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Benito Stirpe
Adriano Montalto · Reggina
coach days359.00267.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.14
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.803.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.172.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.05
dominance (last 5)0.520.35
elo1528.351435.26
elo momentum (last 5)-26.4017.10
eye test v10.23-1.20
eye trend v1-0.380.23
first sub minute (last 10)57.3054.30
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v1—0.64
league points44.0035.00
league rank7.0012.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2070.60
possession avg (last 5)54.0044.00
rest days3.134.19
scorer concentration0.230.26
season ppg1.691.40
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-6.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.608.00
skill v10.32-0.93
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.602.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.602.40
squad age25.4327.84
state index-0.24-0.26
sterile dominance v1-0.11-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.270.21
threat rate (last 3)0.290.21
threat rate (last 5)0.290.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80