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Benevento 5–0 Como 1907

← Serie B 2021 · Wed, Feb 23, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: V. Marini

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Benevento win57%1.78
Draw25%4.20
Como 1907 win18%6.07

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Benevento −0.7555%1.74
Como 1907 −0.7545%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.72
Under44%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Álex Blanco · Como 1907
6'🟨Matteo Solini · Como 1907
11'🟨Matteo Solini · Como 1907
11'🟥Matteo Solini · Como 1907
12'⚽ (pen)Francesco Forte · Benevento
21'⚽ (pen)Roberto Insigne · Benevento
33'🟨Davide Bertoncini · Como 1907
38'⚽Roberto Insigne · Benevento
49'⚽Francesco Forte · Benevento
62'⚽Gennaro Acampora · Benevento
70'🟨Angelo Talia · Benevento

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
24Shots4
6On target3
3Corners0
13Fouls8
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBeneventoComo 1907
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.640.62
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Ciro Vigorito
coach days267.00449.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.20-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.372.98
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.15
dominance (last 5)0.510.48
elo1554.021429.57
elo momentum (last 5)-31.6926.51
eye test v1-0.510.04
eye trend v1-0.170.03
first sub minute (last 10)58.7051.90
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
keeper form v10.77—
league points43.0037.00
league rank8.0011.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.007.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8076.60
possession avg (last 5)56.6048.20
rest days3.133.13
scorer concentration0.270.17
season ppg1.721.48
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.6011.60
skill v10.60-0.16
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.20
state index-0.110.02
sterile dominance v10.29-0.10
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.240.20
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.00