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Alessandria 1–2 Perugia

← Serie B 2021 · Tue, Feb 22, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Piccinini

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Perugia win35%2.90
Alessandria win33%3.00
Draw32%2.99

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alessandria +050%1.94
Perugia +050%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.65
Over41%2.35

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Federico Casarini · Alessandria
15'🟨Gianmaria Zanandrea · Perugia
20'⚽Valerio Mantovani · Alessandria
34'⚽Marco Olivieri · Perugia
37'🟨Salvatore Burrai · Perugia
48'🟨Tommaso Milanese · Alessandria
52'🟨Marco Olivieri · Perugia
65'⚽Marcello Falzerano · Perugia
83'🟨Aleandro Rosi · Perugia
86'🟨Simone Santoro · Perugia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots11
4On target5
7Corners6
7Fouls25
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlessandriaPerugia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.690.54
cards avg (last 5)3.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Giuseppe Moccagatta
coach days417.00266.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.401.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.604.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.312.15
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.03
dominance (last 5)0.380.51
elo1415.141492.91
elo momentum (last 5)-13.1824.32
eye test v1-0.680.30
eye trend v1-0.390.36
first sub minute (last 10)55.1057.10
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.660.82
league points23.0041.00
league rank16.009.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win6.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.4069.60
possession avg (last 5)47.8048.00
rest days3.193.09
scorer concentration0.320.22
season ppg0.921.64
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.001.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.8013.60
skill v1-1.24-0.76
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.405.00
squad age27.8427.33
state index-0.910.30
sterile dominance v1-0.13-0.75
threat rate (last 10)0.240.27
threat rate (last 3)0.190.31
threat rate (last 5)0.190.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.80