← Serie B 2021 · Tue, Feb 22, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Serra
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AC Monza win | 49% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.27 |
| Pordenone win | 22% | 4.47 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Pordenone +0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| AC Monza +0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 21 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand