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Como 1907 2–1 Cosenza

← Serie B 2021 Β· Sun, Feb 20, 02:30 PM UTC Β· ref: A. Prontera

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Como 1907 win50%1.91
Draw28%3.44
Cosenza win21%4.77

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Como 1907 βˆ’0.552%1.88
Cosenza βˆ’0.548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.81
Over47%2.07

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

61'🟨Alessandro Bellemo · Como 1907
67'🟨Vincenzo Millico · Cosenza
71'⚽Alessandro Gabrielloni · Como 1907
84'⚽Alessandro Gabrielloni · Como 1907
87'🟨Tommaso Arrigoni · Como 1907
88'⚽Giuseppe Caso · Cosenza
90'πŸŸ₯Idriz Voca Β· Cosenza

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots2
4On target2
5Corners2
17Fouls16
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricComo 1907Cosenza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.37β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.45β€”
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.37β€”
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.60β€”
cards avg (last 5)1.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
coach days446.0019.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.60-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.407.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.101.73
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.07
dominance (last 5)0.400.40
elo1423.361344.59
elo momentum (last 5)12.125.02
eye test v1-0.23-0.23
eye trend v10.020.69
first sub minute (last 10)52.3046.80
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.53
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.830.80
league points34.0023.00
league rank13.0017.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win0.0014.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0070.60
possession avg (last 5)46.0044.40
rest days3.884.88
scorer concentration0.180.27
season ppg1.420.92
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.40-5.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.0011.60
skill v1-0.31-0.90
sot against avg (last 5)7.004.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.00
squad age27.7926.69
state index-0.35-1.14
sterile dominance v1-0.22-0.70
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.240.29
threat rate (last 5)0.240.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80