⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Spal 1–3 Reggina

← Serie B 2021 · Tue, Feb 15, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: N. Baroni

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Spal win47%2.05
Draw29%3.25
Reggina win24%4.44

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggina −0.552%1.86
Spal −0.548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.66
Over42%2.32

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Nicolò Bianchi · Reggina
19'⚽Marco Mancosu · Spal
32'🟨Federico Giraudo · Reggina
34'⚽Marco Tumminello · Reggina
38'🟨Patryk Peda · Spal
51'🟨Lorenzo Crisetig · Reggina
58'🟨Giuseppe Loiacono · Reggina
60'⚽Nicolò Bianchi · Reggina
65'🟨Biagio Meccariello · Spal
78'⚽Andrej Gălăbinov · Reggina
88'🟨Nicola Bellomo · Reggina

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots13
2On target4
4Corners3
16Fouls18
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSpalReggina
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.21
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.550.57
cards avg (last 5)2.603.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Paolo Mazza
coach days45.00259.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-4.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.407.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.112.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.08
dominance (last 5)0.460.39
elo1420.651408.80
elo momentum (last 5)-20.20-20.44
eye test v1-0.77-1.02
eye trend v10.07-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)53.0053.10
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.35
keeper form v10.690.64
league points26.0029.00
league rank15.0014.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8071.40
possession avg (last 5)47.4045.40
rest days3.193.09
scorer concentration0.270.29
season ppg1.131.26
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.20-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.4010.40
skill v1-0.51-0.77
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.602.50
sot for avg (last 3)1.671.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.802.60
squad age26.4429.20
state index-1.01-0.74
sterile dominance v1-0.28-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.250.20
threat rate (last 3)0.240.16
threat rate (last 5)0.240.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.20