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AC Monza 4–0 Spal

← Serie B 2021 · Sat, Feb 12, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Miele

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AC Monza win55%1.88
Draw26%3.82
Spal win19%5.69

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AC Monza −0.7552%1.89
Spal −0.7548%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.90
Under49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟥Lorenzo Dickmann · Spal
36'🟨Luca Vido · Spal
43'🟨Andrea Barberis · AC Monza
45'⚽Dany Mota · AC Monza
52'⚽Mario Sampirisi · AC Monza
69'🟨Gastón Ramírez · AC Monza
73'🟨Salvatore Esposito · Spal
77'⚽Gastón Ramírez · AC Monza
79'🟨Raffaele Celia · Spal
89'⚽Andrea Colpani · AC Monza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
19Shots2
9On target0
4Corners1
22Fouls14
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAC MonzaSpal
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.32—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.32—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.34—
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.74—
cards avg (last 5)1.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueU-Power Stadium
coach days226.0042.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.03
corner diff avg (last 5)3.400.80
corners against avg (last 5)2.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.406.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.721.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.12
dominance (last 5)0.530.54
elo1529.401431.42
elo momentum (last 5)-10.56-23.25
eye test v10.160.02
eye trend v10.180.35
first sub minute (last 10)55.9058.50
form points (last 5)7.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.74
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v1—0.72
league points36.0026.00
league rank8.0015.00
matches since blank14.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4075.80
possession avg (last 5)53.2052.00
rest days5.915.91
scorer concentration0.260.27
season ppg1.641.18
shot diff avg (last 5)1.002.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.0015.00
skill v10.470.06
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.40
squad age26.8227.37
state index0.12-0.62
sterile dominance v10.31-0.25
threat rate (last 10)0.230.26
threat rate (last 3)0.250.31
threat rate (last 5)0.240.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.60