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Pisa 1–3 Frosinone Calcio

← Serie B 2021 · Sat, Jan 15, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: F. Cosso

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio win37%2.61
Pisa win32%3.09
Draw31%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio +055%1.80
Pisa +045%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.76
Over46%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Maxime Leverbe · Pisa
36'🟨Federico Gatti · Frosinone Calcio
45'🟨Matteo Cotali · Frosinone Calcio
45'⚽Davide Marsura · Pisa
47'⚽Alessio Zerbin · Frosinone Calcio
48'🟨Hjörtur Hermannsson · Pisa
56'🟨Francesco Zampano · Frosinone Calcio
62'🟨Pietro Beruatto · Pisa
71'⚽Alessio Zerbin · Frosinone Calcio
72'🟨Przemysław Szymiński · Frosinone Calcio
84'🟨Alessio Zerbin · Frosinone Calcio
85'⚽Andrija Novakovich · Frosinone Calcio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots16
2On target7
3Corners8
12Fouls18
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPisaFrosinone Calcio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.630.66
cards avg (last 5)3.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueArena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
coach days1324.00320.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.801.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.282.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.020.10
dominance (last 5)0.530.47
elo1543.891520.17
elo momentum (last 5)39.18-5.12
eye test v1-0.230.13
eye trend v10.090.20
first sub minute (last 10)56.0053.10
form points (last 5)13.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.471.29
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.35
keeper form v10.790.79
league points41.0031.00
league rank1.008.00
matches since blank6.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.4075.20
possession avg (last 5)44.2050.20
rest days28.0928.00
scorer concentration0.240.30
season ppg2.161.63
shot diff avg (last 5)1.20-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.4013.60
skill v1-1.03-0.11
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.60
squad age28.0026.26
state index0.770.13
sterile dominance v1-1.17-0.18
threat rate (last 10)0.290.27
threat rate (last 3)0.280.25
threat rate (last 5)0.320.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20