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Benevento 3–1 AC Monza

← Serie B 2021 · Thu, Jan 13, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Valeri

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Benevento win43%2.31
Draw30%3.25
AC Monza win27%3.59

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AC Monza −0.2550%1.94
Benevento −0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.75
Over45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Luca Mazzitelli · AC Monza
7'⚽Roberto Insigne · Benevento
12'🟨Gabriele Moncini · Benevento
28'🟨Luca Mazzitelli · AC Monza
28'🟥Luca Mazzitelli · AC Monza
33'🟨Roberto Insigne · Benevento
34'🟨Gennaro Acampora · Benevento
37'🟥Marco D'Alessandro · AC Monza
38'🟨Giacomo Calò · Benevento
40'⚽Andrés Tello · Benevento
47'⚽ (pen)Mattia Valoti · AC Monza
66'⚽Gabriele Moncini · Benevento
81'🟨Mario Sampirisi · AC Monza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
18Shots7
7On target2
2Corners4
11Fouls13
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBeneventoAC Monza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.510.71
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Ciro Vigorito
coach days226.00196.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.19
corner diff avg (last 5)0.402.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.006.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.513.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.13
dominance (last 5)0.620.57
elo1577.301547.57
elo momentum (last 5)40.9541.64
eye test v11.010.10
eye trend v1-0.120.49
first sub minute (last 10)47.9050.30
form points (last 5)15.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.802.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.331.14
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.40
keeper form v10.870.78
league points34.0032.00
league rank4.006.00
matches since blank5.0010.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0083.20
possession avg (last 5)55.2058.80
rest days30.0030.00
scorer concentration0.320.26
season ppg1.891.78
shot diff avg (last 5)7.002.60
shots for avg (last 5)18.0013.60
skill v10.741.18
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.603.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.004.20
squad age—27.24
state index1.040.74
sterile dominance v1-0.230.84
threat rate (last 10)0.300.20
threat rate (last 3)0.280.22
threat rate (last 5)0.330.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40