⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Crotone 4–1 Pordenone

← Serie B 2021 · Sat, Dec 18, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Crotone win47%2.08
Draw29%3.29
Pordenone win24%4.09

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pordenone −0.553%1.84
Crotone −0.547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.74
Over44%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽ (pen)Mirko Marić · Crotone
19'⚽Giuseppe Borello · Crotone
26'⚽ (pen)Karlo Butić · Pordenone
34'🟨Roberto Zammarini · Pordenone
36'🟨Nicola Falasco · Pordenone
38'🟨Nicola Falasco · Pordenone
38'🟥Nicola Falasco · Pordenone
56'🟨Nahuel Estévez · Crotone
59'🟨Michele Camporese · Pordenone
60'🟨Marco Pinato · Pordenone
68'🟨Jacopo Petriccione · Pordenone
69'⚽Mirko Marić · Crotone
76'⚽Augustus Kargbo · Crotone

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
16Shots9
8On target2
3Corners1
23Fouls16
1Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCrotonePordenone
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.550.59
cards avg (last 5)1.404.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Ezio Scida
coach days78.00108.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.11
corner diff avg (last 5)3.20-5.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.207.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.402.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.063.09
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.07
dominance (last 5)0.510.40
elo1381.021338.65
elo momentum (last 5)-37.2511.23
eye test v10.32-0.63
eye trend v10.410.40
first sub minute (last 10)47.0050.30
form points (last 5)0.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
keeper form v10.630.71
league points8.008.00
league rank19.0018.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet18.002.00
matches since win10.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6070.00
possession avg (last 5)62.6043.40
rest days7.837.00
scorer concentration0.430.17
season ppg0.440.44
shot diff avg (last 5)1.20-5.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.0010.40
skill v11.19-1.03
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.20
squad age26.1725.38
state index-1.27-0.68
sterile dominance v10.77-0.65
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.28
threat rate (last 5)0.250.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.40