⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Pisa 1–0 US Lecce

← Serie B 2021 · Sat, Dec 11, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: D. Orsato

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa win35%2.88
US Lecce win34%3.09
Draw31%3.10

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa +054%1.81
US Lecce +046%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.59
Over40%2.47

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Morten Hjulmand · US Lecce
21'🟨Robert Gucher · Pisa
29'🟨Antonio Barreca · US Lecce
50'🟨Ádám Nagy · Pisa
58'⚽Giuseppe Sibilli · Pisa
77'🟨Zan Majer · US Lecce
88'🟨Arturo Calabresi · US Lecce
90'🟨Giuseppe Sibilli · Pisa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots13
2On target6
3Corners11
15Fouls16
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPisaUS Lecce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
box share (last 5)0.530.57
cards avg (last 5)3.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueArena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
coach days1289.00163.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.15
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.142.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.08
dominance (last 5)0.490.60
elo1522.981601.57
elo momentum (last 5)14.8026.22
eye test v1-0.650.69
eye trend v10.19-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)59.2061.10
form points (last 5)10.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.471.41
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.40
keeper form v10.800.73
league points35.0031.00
league rank2.007.00
matches since blank4.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.4078.60
possession avg (last 5)42.2051.80
rest days6.097.00
scorer concentration0.260.33
season ppg2.061.94
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.805.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.0014.80
skill v1-1.170.30
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.605.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.80
squad age27.5926.36
state index0.210.83
sterile dominance v1-1.10-0.14
threat rate (last 10)0.300.28
threat rate (last 3)0.350.28
threat rate (last 5)0.300.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.80