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Pordenone 1–1 Cosenza

← Serie B 2021 · Sat, Dec 11, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Piccinini

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pordenone win46%2.20
Draw30%3.40
Cosenza win24%4.28

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza −0.552%1.85
Pordenone −0.548%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.65
Over41%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Marco Pinato · Pordenone
14'🟨Andrea Tiritiello · Cosenza
17'🟨Michele Rigione · Cosenza
21'🟨Michael Venturi · Cosenza
30'⚽ (pen)Karlo Butić · Pordenone
41'🟨Karlo Butić · Pordenone
43'🟨Nicolò Cambiaghi · Pordenone
56'🟨Alberto Barison · Pordenone
66'🟨Marco Carraro · Cosenza
69'🟨Alberto Barison · Pordenone
69'🟥Alberto Barison · Pordenone
77'⚽Mario Šitum · Cosenza
81'🟨Nicola Falasco · Pordenone
90'🟨Aldo Florenzi · Cosenza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots11
4On target3
2Corners6
22Fouls18
6Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPordenoneCosenza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.630.53
cards avg (last 5)3.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Guido Teghil
coach days101.00132.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.802.60
corners against avg (last 5)7.203.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.406.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.003.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.17
dominance (last 5)0.390.50
elo1339.741361.71
elo momentum (last 5)8.97-36.45
eye test v1-0.81-0.39
eye trend v10.170.10
first sub minute (last 10)46.6053.30
form points (last 5)4.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.25
keeper form v10.700.67
league points7.0018.00
league rank19.0016.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.0010.00
matches since win1.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2080.40
possession avg (last 5)46.2048.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.170.33
season ppg0.411.06
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.400.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.8011.20
skill v1-0.650.23
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.402.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.20
squad age26.3526.93
state index-0.65-1.31
sterile dominance v1-0.210.21
threat rate (last 10)0.260.19
threat rate (last 3)0.250.17
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.20