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Como 1907 0–1 Pisa

← Serie B 2021 Β· Sun, Dec 5, 01:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D. Doveri

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa win35%2.80
Como 1907 win34%3.00
Draw31%3.15

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa +053%1.83
Como 1907 +047%2.08

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽ (og)Filippo Scaglia · Pisa
62'🟨Tommaso Arrigoni · Como 1907
75'🟨Pietro Beruatto · Pisa
90'🟨Matteo Solini · Como 1907
90'🟨Filippo Scaglia · Como 1907
90'🟨Gaetano Masucci · Pisa

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
21Shots13
6On target2
3Corners7
11Fouls24
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricComo 1907Pisa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.490.21
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.25
box share (last 5)0.660.52
cards avg (last 5)2.603.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
coach days369.001283.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.200.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.723.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.06
dominance (last 5)0.390.50
elo1400.501514.53
elo momentum (last 5)31.202.77
eye test v10.48-0.75
eye trend v1-0.220.12
first sub minute (last 10)55.8060.30
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.150.47
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.50
keeper form v10.790.78
league points21.0032.00
league rank15.002.00
matches since blank10.003.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6069.20
possession avg (last 5)42.4043.40
rest days3.734.83
scorer concentration0.220.26
season ppg1.402.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.000.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.2013.00
skill v1-0.77-1.11
sot against avg (last 5)5.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.402.80
squad age27.4625.53
state index-0.09-0.03
sterile dominance v1-0.70-0.99
threat rate (last 10)0.290.29
threat rate (last 3)0.260.34
threat rate (last 5)0.270.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.00