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Frosinone Calcio 2–2 Pordenone

← Serie B 2021 · Sat, Nov 27, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio win61%1.57
Draw24%4.21
Pordenone win15%6.81

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pordenone −151%1.94
Frosinone Calcio −149%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.97
Over49%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Karlo Lulić · Frosinone Calcio
20'🟨Luca Garritano · Frosinone Calcio
48'⚽Alberto Barison · Pordenone
51'🟨Hamza El Kaouakibi · Pordenone
59'🟨Hamza El Kaouakibi · Pordenone
59'🟥Hamza El Kaouakibi · Pordenone
66'🟨Roberto Zammarini · Pordenone
74'⚽Gabriel Charpentier · Frosinone Calcio
76'🟨Raffaele Maiello · Frosinone Calcio
83'🟨Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio
86'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
26Shots10
7On target2
6Corners2
10Fouls8
5Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFrosinone CalcioPordenone
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.21
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.23
box share (last 5)0.680.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days271.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Benito Stirpe
Nicolò Cambiaghi · Pordenone
88'🟨Samuele Perisan · Pordenone
90'🟨Gabriel Charpentier · Frosinone Calcio
90'🟨Luca Magnino · Pordenone
90'⚽Gabriel Charpentier · Frosinone Calcio
87.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.59
elo1504.671327.56
elo momentum (last 5)37.18-9.84
eye test v1-0.16-0.55
eye trend v1-0.410.13
first sub minute (last 10)56.5041.20
form points (last 5)11.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.79
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v1—0.63
league points22.003.00
league rank4.0020.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.0013.00
matches since win1.0013.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4076.80
possession avg (last 5)53.0056.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.240.29
season ppg1.690.23
skill v10.230.38
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.902.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.00
state index0.44-1.48
sterile dominance v1-0.070.41
threat rate (last 10)0.310.26
threat rate (last 3)0.230.22
threat rate (last 5)0.280.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20