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Parma Calcio 1913 1–1 Cosenza

← Serie B 2021 · Sun, Nov 21, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Miele

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Parma Calcio 1913 win68%1.50
Draw21%4.93
Cosenza win11%12.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Parma Calcio 1913 −1.2554%1.84
Cosenza −1.2546%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.86
Under47%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Stanko Jurić · Parma Calcio 1913
25'🟨Juan Brunetta · Parma Calcio 1913
51'🟨Woyo Coulibaly · Parma Calcio 1913
68'🟨Franco Vázquez · Parma Calcio 1913
73'⚽Andrea Tiritiello · Cosenza
79'🟨Pasquale Schiattarella · Parma Calcio 1913
79'🟨Luca Palmiero · Cosenza
90'🟨Marco Carraro · Cosenza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots16
3On target7
2Corners6
13Fouls10
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricParma Calcio 1913Cosenza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.46
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.470.53
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Ennio Tardini
coach days20.00112.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.16
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.002.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.202.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.11
dominance (last 5)0.420.30
elo1501.231389.04
elo momentum (last 5)-0.57-8.35
eye test v1-0.76-1.07
eye trend v1-0.20-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)49.6054.00
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.750.76
league points19.0017.00
league rank11.0015.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.006.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8074.20
possession avg (last 5)50.0041.80
rest days14.0015.73
scorer concentration0.250.40
season ppg1.461.31
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60-10.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.808.00
skill v10.45-0.81
sot against avg (last 5)5.606.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.402.20
squad age25.40—
state index-0.18-0.91
sterile dominance v10.41-0.20
threat rate (last 10)0.230.20
threat rate (last 3)0.180.25
threat rate (last 5)0.220.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20