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Como 1907 4–1 Perugia

← Serie B 2021 · Sat, Nov 6, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Cosso

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Como 1907 win36%2.81
Perugia win33%3.10
Draw31%3.16

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Perugia +050%1.95
Como 1907 +050%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Antonino La Gumina · Como 1907
14'🟨Cristian Dell'Orco · Perugia
15'⚽ (pen)Alberto Cerri · Como 1907
18'⚽Alessandro Bellemo · Como 1907
21'🟨Salvatore Burrai · Perugia
25'🟨Aleandro Rosi · Perugia
28'⚽Matteo Solini · Como 1907
41'🟨Vittorio Parigini · Como 1907
48'⚽Manuel De Luca · Perugia
50'🟨Luca Vignali · Como 1907
80'🟨Marcos Curado · Perugia
89'🟨Elvis Kabashi · Como 1907

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score0
13Shots18
9On target4
5Corners5
12Fouls19
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricComo 1907Perugia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.11
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.16
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.570.54
cards avg (last 5)1.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
coach days340.00158.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.004.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.232.30
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.11
dominance (last 5)0.390.56
elo1382.181456.79
elo momentum (last 5)67.6616.42
eye test v10.42-0.76
eye trend v10.14-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)65.0052.10
form points (last 5)13.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.790.79
league points16.0017.00
league rank16.0013.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0072.80
possession avg (last 5)39.0046.80
rest days4.964.96
scorer concentration0.270.22
season ppg1.451.55
shot diff avg (last 5)-9.603.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.6014.00
skill v1-1.14-0.56
sot against avg (last 5)5.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.202.60
squad age26.8529.43
state index0.220.05
sterile dominance v1-1.24-0.71
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.300.30
threat rate (last 5)0.300.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.80