⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Reggina 2–1 Parma Calcio 1913

← Serie B 2021 · Sun, Oct 24, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: L. Zufferli

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggina win36%2.80
Parma Calcio 1913 win34%2.85
Draw30%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggina +051%1.93
Parma Calcio 1913 +049%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Pasquale Schiattarella · Parma Calcio 1913
14'⚽Jérémy Ménez · Reggina
32'🟨Nicola Bellomo · Reggina
39'🟨Dennis Man · Parma Calcio 1913
41'🟨Franco Vázquez · Parma Calcio 1913
43'🟨Thiago Cionek · Reggina
55'🟨Jérémy Ménez · Reggina
61'🟨Gianluca Di Chiara · Reggina
65'🟨Dimitrios Stavropoulos · Reggina
71'🟨Stanko Jurić · Parma Calcio 1913
72'⚽ (pen)

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots11
6On target3
2Corners7
12Fouls19
5Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRegginaParma Calcio 1913
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.640.49
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Oreste Granillo
Andrej Gălăbinov
· Reggina
75'🟨Valentin Mihăilă · Parma Calcio 1913
82'⚽Franco Vázquez · Parma Calcio 1913
3.40
coach days145.00176.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.00-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)7.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.833.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.10
dominance (last 5)0.500.48
elo1475.391501.80
elo momentum (last 5)7.02-35.57
eye test v1-0.38-0.18
eye trend v1-0.240.10
first sub minute (last 10)53.4053.00
form points (last 5)8.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.720.79
league points16.0010.00
league rank7.0015.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4080.20
possession avg (last 5)53.6051.40
rest days8.097.00
scorer concentration0.430.17
season ppg1.781.25
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.6013.60
skill v10.220.42
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.60
squad age29.0526.66
state index0.06-0.54
sterile dominance v10.230.04
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.220.32
threat rate (last 5)0.240.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00