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Benevento 3–0 Cosenza

← Serie B 2021 · Sat, Oct 23, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Ghersini

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Benevento win67%1.53
Draw22%4.74
Cosenza win11%10.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Benevento −1.2551%1.91
Cosenza −1.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.93
Under49%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'⚽Federico Barba · Benevento
56'⚽Gianluca Lapadula · Benevento
78'🟨Giacomo Calò · Benevento
86'⚽Andrés Tello · Benevento
88'🟨Luca Pandolfi · Cosenza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots7
6On target0
4Corners5
14Fouls14
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBeneventoCosenza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.47
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.56
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.61
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.610.49
cards avg (last 5)3.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Ciro Vigorito
coach days144.0083.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.17
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.802.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.622.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.05
dominance (last 5)0.500.33
elo1562.101398.25
elo momentum (last 5)15.8016.85
eye test v1-0.180.04
eye trend v1-0.09-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)43.1057.60
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.510.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v1—0.78
league points13.0014.00
league rank13.0010.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2072.80
possession avg (last 5)56.0041.60
rest days6.006.91
scorer concentration0.400.43
season ppg1.631.56
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-7.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.807.00
skill v10.81-0.90
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.20
squad age27.2426.92
state index0.40-0.45
sterile dominance v10.65-0.13
threat rate (last 10)0.240.21
threat rate (last 3)0.250.12
threat rate (last 5)0.230.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20