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Parma Calcio 1913 0–0 AC Monza

← Serie B 2021 · Sun, Oct 17, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Parma Calcio 1913 win44%2.25
Draw28%3.43
AC Monza win28%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Parma Calcio 1913 −0.2550%1.93
AC Monza −0.2550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.91
Over49%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Valentin Mihăilă · Parma Calcio 1913
18'🟨Luca Marrone · AC Monza
35'🟨Luca Mazzitelli · AC Monza
46'🟨Giulio Donati · AC Monza
52'🟨Juan Brunetta · Parma Calcio 1913
61'🟨Luca Marrone · AC Monza
61'🟥Luca Marrone · AC Monza
65'🟨Mattia Valoti · AC Monza
78'🟨Pasquale Schiattarella · Parma Calcio 1913
80'🟨Gennaro Tutino · Parma Calcio 1913

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots10
3On target2
5Corners9
10Fouls9
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricParma Calcio 1913AC Monza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.550.70
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Ennio Tardini
2.60
coach days169.00108.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.801.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.142.69
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.12
dominance (last 5)0.430.41
elo1503.781493.77
elo momentum (last 5)-17.55-16.89
eye test v10.02-0.46
eye trend v1-0.01-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)51.9054.70
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v10.770.69
league points9.009.00
league rank14.0015.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.005.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0081.00
possession avg (last 5)52.8057.80
rest days14.9115.82
scorer concentration0.170.29
season ppg1.291.29
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.40-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.2010.80
skill v10.490.91
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.20
squad age26.9327.81
state index-0.38-0.44
sterile dominance v10.371.03
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.260.17
threat rate (last 5)0.230.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.40