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Perugia 1–0 Brescia

← Serie B 2021 · Sat, Oct 16, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: M. Guida

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Perugia win38%2.70
Brescia win32%3.20
Draw30%3.38

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia −0.2553%1.85
Perugia −0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.90
Under49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Ryder Matos · Perugia
25'⚽ (pen)Manuel De Luca · Perugia
45'🟨Marcello Falzerano · Perugia
48'🟨Tom Van De Looi · Brescia
50'🟨Aleš Matějů · Brescia
71'🟨Cristian Dell'Orco · Perugia
74'🟨Riad Bajić · Brescia
90'🟨Francesco Lisi · Perugia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots5
1On target1
6Corners3
18Fouls20
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPerugiaBrescia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.590.65
cards avg (last 5)3.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Renato Curi
coach days137.00137.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.201.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.807.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.18
dominance (last 5)0.450.57
elo1445.281540.50
elo momentum (last 5)28.09-5.39
eye test v10.080.65
eye trend v10.32-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)52.6054.90
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.402.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.45
keeper form v10.79—
league points10.0014.00
league rank12.006.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6080.60
possession avg (last 5)52.2053.20
rest days12.8213.09
scorer concentration0.250.18
season ppg1.432.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.804.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.2017.20
skill v1-0.040.57
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.705.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.20
squad age27.2826.82
state index0.030.20
sterile dominance v10.03-0.30
threat rate (last 10)0.250.31
threat rate (last 3)0.270.33
threat rate (last 5)0.250.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.002.00